Lula promised to end the "shameful" INSS (Brazilian Social Security Institute) waiting list, but it has doubled – and could still grow.

Lula promised to eliminate the INSS (National Social Security Institute) queues, a bottleneck that for years has made access to retirement benefits a bureaucratic ordeal. "It's possible to do," he said confidently, while still a candidate. In his inauguration speech on January 1, 2023, he reaffirmed that he would end the "shameful INSS queue," stating that he had previously managed to reduce the benefit granting process from one year to five days.

Almost three years later, the reality is that the government has failed to meet its goal. The numbers illustrate the scale of the problem: a 114% increase since the start of the term.

In 2023, there were 1.23 million applications for retirement, pensions, and benefits under review. In August 2025, the latest data available on the Transparency Portal of the Ministry of Social Security, the total was 2.63 million, slightly below the record of 2.7 million pending applications reached in March.

The situation has another aggravating factor. The Benefits Management Program (PGB), which had been in operation since April to speed up the process, was suspended in October due to lack of funds. Created by provisional measure and transformed into law in September, the program offered bonus payments to INSS employees who exceeded productivity targets — R$ 68 per completed process and R$ 75 per medical examination.

In practice, it functioned as a kind of "paid task force." Now, without additional incentives, experts predict a further slowdown in the pace of approvals, affecting retirees, pensioners, and beneficiaries of the BPC (Continuous Cash Benefit).

Meanwhile, the INSS (Brazilian National Social Security Institute) is trying to replenish its budget to resume the program later this year. The initial budget of R$ 200 million until 2026 was exhausted sooner than expected, according to the agency, which has requested an additional budget of R$ 89.1 million from the Ministry of Social Security to continue the initiative.

It is worth remembering that the interruption occurs amidst a public finance crisis, with the Lula government still trying to secure resources to meet the fiscal surplus target of R$ 34.3 billion projected for 2026.

This Thursday (6), INSS reported that it will receive R$ 217 million for essential services such as security, cleaning and surveillance of agencies, in addition to the maintenance of channel 135. The agency, however, had also requested an additional R$ 450 million, as well as the release of R$ 142 million, requests that have not yet been met.

When questioned by Gazeta do Povo , INSS did not respond as to whether the program to expedite the granting of benefits will be resumed.

The biggest bottleneck in the INSS (Brazilian National Social Security Institute) queues is in-person medical examinations.

According to José Cechin, a health and social security consultant, the historical difficulty in reducing the waiting list is, at the very least, "strange," considering the resources available. He points out that, since 1976, the National Social Information Registry (CNIS) has gathered complete data on employment records and contributions, and that the law allows for the automatic recognition of retirement and pension benefits without the need for additional documentation.

“Why is the CNIS, which gathers all information about employment history and contributions, not being fully utilized? Has it been abandoned? In the late 1990s and early 2000s, when this registry wasn't even complete, processing times were much shorter—few benefits took more than 45 days, and most were granted in about ten,” he observes.

According to him, full use of the system should be enough to prevent the queues from growing, although he admits that the biggest bottleneck is in benefits that require medical expertise — such as sick pay and accident benefits — and depend on in-person evaluation.

To try to speed up the medical examinations, the Ministry of Social Security created Atestmed , a system that allows the granting of temporary disability benefits based solely on the analysis of medical certificates and reports submitted digitally, without the need for an in-person examination.

The tool, implemented in 2022, has been cited as one of the main reasons for the reduction in the INSS (Brazilian National Social Security Institute) waiting list — which decreased by 37% between September 2023 and April 2024, according to official data. The mechanism also expanded access in regions with fewer experts and resulted in estimated savings of R$ 2.5 billion by 2026.

In recent months, however, the system has faced criticism and restrictions. A recent change reduced the maximum time for granting aid through the tool to 30 days, which, according to experts, could lead to the reopening of bottlenecks and an increase in demand for in-person medical examinations. Entities such as the National Association of Federal Medical Experts warn that the current model weakens fraud control and may even increase the waiting list.

In addition to queues, delays generate costs and litigation.

According to the Social Security Administration, the average processing time for benefits nationwide is 42 days. However, there are disparities between regions, with some taking up to 68 days. The legal deadline for granting benefits is 45 days. Luís Lopes, a specialist in Social Security Law, states that the delay in approving benefits ends up increasing public spending, since the government has to pay retroactive amounts with interest.

According to him, the current situation highlights the repetition of a historical error by governments that treat the INSS (Brazilian National Social Security Institute) backlog as an emergency problem. He recalls that measures based on productivity incentives have already been tested in previous administrations, with limited results. "There was some punctual improvement, but always insufficient to effectively address the problem. Even before the suspension, the backlog was already growing significantly," he states.

The consultant advocates for a long-term structural solution, since granting benefits within the legal timeframe is more economical. "The Social Security system needs to rethink its processes," he states. "There are systems that don't communicate, overlapping tasks, and repeated analyses of issues that are already settled in the courts. This generates unnecessary appeals and pushes millions of people into the judicial system."

According to the National Council of Justice (CNJ), the INSS (Brazilian National Institute of Social Security) is currently the biggest litigant in the country, with approximately 4 million lawsuits in progress. "Each lawsuit costs five to six times more than an administrative process," Lopes points out.

INSS queues require a combined solution.

According to Lopes, the problem requires a combined solution. In addition to investing in technology and artificial intelligence—which should be incorporated to optimize the screening of requests—it is necessary to increase the number of personnel. “Since 2007 it was known that half of the INSS (Brazilian National Social Security Institute) staff would retire within ten years. This happened, but there was no replacement. Governments bet that technology would replace the workforce—and the result is there for all to see,” he states.

Even considering the government's fiscal situation, Lopes defends hiring new civil servants. "It's an illusion to think that the problem can be solved without spending," he says. "There are internal redesign measures that cost little, but structurally, it will be necessary to invest in personnel, technology, and systems integration."

According to him, the initial expense is inevitable, but it pays for itself quickly. "Especially considering the high social cost of the delay—people without income, vulnerable families, and increased litigation—which means that the country is already bearing this expense through other means," he points out.

“What’s lacking isn’t an emergency plan, but a state policy. If nothing is done, the waiting list will continue to grow—and with it, public spending.”